Welcome to the PGA Sleeve of Bets article for SportsBetArmy where I give you three FREE bets every single week and an inside peak at some of the exciting things happening at SportsBetArmy!
For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth) and I’m a PGA coach over at SportsBetArmy’s sister DFS site, DFS Army, as well as a contributor here. I’ve been playing DFS for 5 years and coaching players to success for the last three. I’ve recreationally bet on golf as well during this time, but have only recently started taking it more seriously after learning some skills and strategies in other sports from our amazing staff here at SportsBetArmy.
The PGA Sleeve of Bets article will give you three bets weekly, just like a sleeve of golf balls, and each will be a little different. An outright bet, a head to head matchup, and a wild card which can be a top 10/20 bet, an FRL or maybe even a group bet!
Patrick Reed +3500 to win
Statsational’s golf model has this as the most +EV bet on the entire board. His model rates him at +2841 which gives him a 3.5% chance to win, meaning you get some real value here with Reed at +3500 on mybookie.ag. Reed was 12th here last year and while his approach game has been mediocre lately, he’s been scoring like crazy and he has two career WGC wins. Over on the DFS Side we have him projected as the 10th best score/round based on the course they are playing this week, so him being priced 18th on the betting board presents a big value.
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Head to Head
Dustin Johnson +130 over Tommy Fleetwood
This one pains me a bit, because I’m a Tommy Fleetwood stan, but getting DJ at plus money here is just wrong. I understand that DJ has shot 78/80/80 in his last three rounds and withdrew last week with a ‘back injury’ (or was just too embarrassed to keep playing) but lets not forget that he won just over a month ago at the Travelers, and has won at TPC Southwind twice in his career. He will be clearly comfortable getting around this course, and the short rough (only 2.5 inches) will benefit him if he continues to struggle off the tee a bit. Statsational’s golf model has DJ as the third best +EV outright bet this week as he has him at +3100. Tommy meanwhile would be priced at +4600 meaning that according to the model, these odds should be flipped and we should be getting plus money on Tommy here instead. Take the value with DJ, trust the model, and run!
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Billy Horschel +360 group bet over Fowler/Spieth/Woodland/Ancer
I love me some Billy Ho this week and while he’s way too short in the outright market, I don’t mind taking this line against four players that I really think are either A) overpriced or B) not very good. Billy loves TPC Southwind. He has 5 top tens here in his last 6 starts. The SportsBetArmy golf model actually has Horschel as the best outright odds of this group, yet he’s priced as the third best in this group. Again, we always want to look at value and probabilites of something happen. TTM here my friends…trust the model!