SportsBetArmy – PGA Sleeve of Bets: PGA Championship

Welcome to the PGA Sleeve of Bets article for SportsBetArmy where I give you three FREE bets every single week and an inside peak at some of the exciting things happening at SportsBetArmy!

Aug 10, 2017; Charlotte, NC, USA; A view of the Wannamaker trophy on the first tee during the first round of the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club. Mandatory Credit: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports

For those of you that don’t know me, my name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth) and I’m a PGA coach over at SportsBetArmy’s sister DFS site, DFS Army, as well as a contributor here. I’ve been playing DFS for 5 years and coaching players to success for the last three. I’ve recreationally bet on golf as well during this time, but have only recently started taking it more seriously after learning some skills and strategies in other sports from our amazing staff here at SportsBetArmy.

The PGA Sleeve of Bets article will give you three bets weekly, just like a sleeve of golf balls, and each will be a little different. An outright bet, a head to head matchup, and a wild card which can be a top 10/20 bet, an FRL or maybe even a group bet!

Last week we missed on the Outright/Wild Card but smashed the Head to Head with DJ over Fleetwood. This week

Outright:

Patrick Cantlay +2800 to win

Jul 12, 2020; Dublin, Ohio, USA; Patrick Cantlay on the 14th hole during the final round of the Workday Charity Open golf tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

While this isn’t the most +EV bet on the board in Statsational’s Golf Model  as some of the long shots are at the top there, Cantlay is one of the better candidates for a +EV among anyone priced below +5000 and if you are able to grab him at MyBookie.ag you can get him at closer to Statsational’s true odds of +3100.

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I love me some Cantlay this week. He had a rough start to his round at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude last week losing a ton of strokes approach and with his putter and then turned in a fantastic performance on the weekend, gaining strokes everywhere, hitting tons of fairways and greens, and looking like the guy we expected to see.

Cantlay is a California kid and very comfortable on these bent grass greens as they are his best surface. He’s an elite long iron player which should benefit him here as the course will play much longer than the listed 7200 yards.

I think he makes quite a bit of sense this week and he’s the only player priced under +3000 that I have any interest in (beyond Xander Schauffelle who if you could get at +2500 last week made some sense but he’s drifted massively in the last 48 hours).

Head to Head

Adam Scott +125 over Matthew Fitzpatrick

Mar 5, 2020; Orlando, Florida, USA; Adam Scott hits a provisional ball on the 18th hole during the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tournament at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Similar to last week, this one pains me a bit because I love Fitzpatrick in DFS this week, but we’re just getting way to much value here on Scott based on the model. Statsational’s golf model has Scott’s true odds at +6000 and Fitzpatricks true odds at +7500, yet for this head to head matchup we have Fitz as a pretty heavy favorite at -140 to win the matchup. I get that this Scott’s first time back playing golf since the break and Fitz has been hot fire, especially with his putter later but there’s too much value in that number on Scott. Take the value with Scott, trust the model, and run!

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Wild Card:

Top Canadian – Nick Taylor +450

Jul 9, 2020; Dublin, Ohio, USA; Nick Taylor plays his shot from the tenth tee during the first round of the Workday Charity Open golf tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Taylor is a core play for me in DFS this week and I actually am surprised to see him with the best odds of any of the Canadians.  The Statsational Golf model has him at +23500 for an outright win, similar to Adam Hadwin who is +22000. Conners is best in the model at +15000. Conners is +185 in this market and Hadwin is +200. That screams huge value to me with Taylor. Taylor won at a similar track (Pebble Beach) earlier this year and like most Canadians is much more comfortable on bent grass putting surfaces like the have here.

If you want to get REALLY funky with your money I actually am really intrigued by Benjamin Hebert as Top Continental European for +5000!

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