Every year I analyze each team in the NFL Playoffs to look for value on a potential Super Bowl winner. The playoffs do not determine the best team of the season. We crown the team that wins the tournament at the end of the year, the champion. Since deciding who the best team is can be subjective, we like having it settled on the field. But that does open it up to an inferior team getting hot at the right time or getting favorable matchups to win it all.
Over the last 20 seasons, just 5 of the 20 teams with the best regular-season record or tied for the best record went on to win the Super Bowl. The ’02 Buccaneers, ’03 Patriots, ’13 Seahawks, ’14 Patriots (1 of 5 12-4 teams that year), and ’17 Philadelphia Eagles (1 of 4 teams tied at 13-3). Looking for a long shot is usually beneficial.
I used to look at just three filters to determine a potential winner for the Super Bowl. It is a very basic strategy but a good way to weed out the teams that are unlikely to win it all. I have since added a few which we will get to.
Here are my original filters
1. The team must have a total yardage differential per game >18 (just four teams have won the Super Bowl with less)
2. Teams must be + in turnover differential (just seven teams won the Super Bowl with a – differential)
3. SRS from Pro Footbal Reference >5.8 (just 10 teams had a lower ranking including the 2015 Broncos at 5.8)
Since the merger
-36 of the 49 Super Bowl winners satisfied all three criteria.
-The average Super Bowl winner has a +62 yardage differential and +8.8 TO differential. Average SRS is 8.97
The yardage differential of Super Bowl winners since 2001 is where we see some weaker teams prevailing. It is taking less dominant teams from a yardage standpoint to win it all. The turnovers have become increasingly important, though. Since 1988 only two teams have won with a negative TO ratio (2007 Giants, 2015 Broncos). This makes sense because teams that are close in yardage differential need to create turnovers to outscore their opponent.
Here is a list of all the Super Bowl winners and their stats for that season.
| Year | Team | Yards Diff / Game | TO Diff | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | Baltimore | 21 | -2 | 0.4 |
| 1971 | Dallas | 112 | 16 | 9.9 |
| 1972 | Miami | 124 | 18 | 11 |
| 1973 | Miami | 59 | 1 | 13.4 |
| 1974 | Pittsburgh | 93 | 7 | 6.8 |
| 1975 | Pittsburgh | 88 | 5 | 14.2 |
| 1976 | Oakland | 58 | -4 | 8.5 |
| 1977 | Dallas | 114 | 7 | 7.8 |
| 1978 | Pittsburgh | 52 | 7 | 8.2 |
| 1979 | Pittsburgh | 124 | -10 | 11.9 |
| 1980 | Oakland | 0 | 5 | 4.2 |
| 1981 | San Francisco | 45 | 23 | 6.2 |
| 1982 | Washington | 47 | 8 | 7.4 |
| 1983 | Los Angeles | 59 | -13 | 6.8 |
| 1984 | San Francisco | 74 | 16 | 12.7 |
| 1985 | Chicago | 106 | 23 | 15.9 |
| 1986 | NY Giants | 39 | 11 | 9 |
| 1987 | Washington | 36 | -3 | 3.9 |
| 1988 | San Francisco | 83 | 12 | 4.8 |
| 1989 | San Francisco | 103 | 12 | 10.7 |
| 1990 | NY Giants | 37 | 20 | 7.7 |
| 1991 | Washington | 91 | 18 | 16.6 |
| 1992 | Dallas | 105 | 7 | 9.9 |
| 1993 | Dallas | 53 | 6 | 9.6 |
| 1994 | San Francisco | 76 | 11 | 11.6 |
| 1995 | Dallas | 49 | 2 | 9.7 |
| 1996 | Green Bay | 86 | 15 | 15.3 |
| 1997 | Denver | 75 | 10 | 10.7 |
| 1998 | Denver | 72 | 10 | 8.9 |
| 1999 | St Louis | 107 | 5 | 11.9 |
| 2000 | Baltimore | 65 | 23 | 8 |
| 2001 | New England | (29) | 7 | 4.3 |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay | 60 | 17 | 8.8 |
| 2003 | New England | 23 | 17 | 6.9 |
| 2004 | New England | 47 | 9 | 12.8 |
| 2005 | Pittsburgh | 38 | 7 | 7.8 |
| 2007 | NY Giants | 26 | -9 | 3.3 |
| 2008 | Pittsburgh | 75 | 4 | 9.8 |
| 2009 | New Orleans | 46 | 11 | 10.8 |
| 2010 | Green Bay | 49 | 10 | 10.9 |
| 2011 | NY Giants | 9 | 7 | 1.6 |
| 2012 | Baltimore | 2 | 9 | 2.9 |
| 2013 | Seattle | 65 | 20 | 13 |
| 2014 | New England | 21 | 12 | 10.5 |
| 2015 | Denver | 72 | -4 | 5.8 |
| 2016 | New England | 60 | 12 | 9.29 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia | 59 | 11 | 9.41 |
| 2018 | New England | 34 | 10 | 5.2 |
| 2019 | Kansas City | 30 | 8 | 9.14 |
Here are this years playoff teams
| Year | Team | Yards Diff / Game | TO Diff | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Kansas City | 58 | 6 | 2.3 |
| 2020 | Green Bay | 55 | 7 | 1.8 |
| 2020 | New Orleans | 66 | 9 | 4.5 |
| 2020 | Buffalo | 44 | 4 | 0.6 |
| 2020 | Baltimore | 33 | 4 | 4.3 |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay | 57 | 8 | 2.8 |
| 2020 | Seattle | (11) | 4 | 0.7 |
| 2020 | Pittsburgh | 29 | 9 | 4.4 |
| 2020 | Tennessee | (2) | 11 | (3.1) |
| 2020 | Indianapolis | 46 | 10 | 1.6 |
| 2020 | LA Rams | 95 | (3) | 6.2 |
| 2020 | Cleveland | 11 | 5 | (2.8) |
| 2020 | Chicago | (14) | (4) | 2.4 |
| 2020 | Washington | 13 | (4) | 3.2 |
A few seasons ago, I added Passer Rating Differential to our analysis. Simply put, this stat looks at a team’s Offensive Passer Rating and subtracts its Defensive Passer Rating. This stat was shown to be relevant to Super Bowl success by the guys at Cold Hard Football Facts. In their analysis, they go back to 1940. Here are some key points
– 18 of 79 NFL Champs finished #1 in Offensive Passer Rating (23%)
– 21 of 79 finished #1 in Defensive Passer Rating (27%)
– 27 of 79 finished #1 in Passer Rating Differential (34%)
– 45 of 79 finished in the top 3 in Passer Rating Differential (57%)
– 74 of 79 finished in the top 10 in Passer Rating Differential (94%)
Here are the Passer Rating Stats for each champion since 1970
| Year | Team | OPR | DPR | PRDiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | Baltimore | 73.3 | 60.3 | 13 |
| 1971 | Dallas | 88.8 | 55.9 | 32.9 |
| 1972 | Miami | 86.9 | 47.4 | 39.5 |
| 1973 | Miami | 75.2 | 39.9 | 35.3 |
| 1974 | Pittsburgh | 48.9 | 44.3 | 4.6 |
| 1975 | Pittsburgh | 86.7 | 42.8 | 43.9 |
| 1976 | Oakland | 102.2 | 68.8 | 33.4 |
| 1977 | Dallas | 85.3 | 48.2 | 37.1 |
| 1978 | Pittsburgh | 81.5 | 51.8 | 29.7 |
| 1979 | Pittsburgh | 76.6 | 56.4 | 20.2 |
| 1980 | Oakland | 70 | 61.8 | 8.2 |
| 1981 | San Francisco | 87.7 | 60.2 | 27.5 |
| 1982 | Washington | 91.8 | 67.7 | 24.1 |
| 1983 | Los Angeles | 84.8 | 71.8 | 13 |
| 1984 | San Francisco | 101.9 | 65.6 | 36.3 |
| 1985 | Chicago | 77.3 | 51.2 | 26.1 |
| 1986 | NY Giants | 75 | 68.6 | 6.4 |
| 1987 | Washington | 80.7 | 69.3 | 11.4 |
| 1988 | San Francisco | 83.5 | 72.2 | 11.3 |
| 1989 | San Francisco | 114.8 | 68.5 | 46.3 |
| 1990 | NY Giants | 90.6 | 62.2 | 28.4 |
| 1991 | Washington | 98 | 58.9 | 39.1 |
| 1992 | Dallas | 88.8 | 69.9 | 18.9 |
| 1993 | Dallas | 96.8 | 75.3 | 21.5 |
| 1994 | San Francisco | 111.4 | 68.1 | 43.3 |
| 1995 | Dallas | 91.7 | 72.3 | 19.4 |
| 1996 | Green Bay | 95.7 | 55.4 | 40.3 |
| 1997 | Denver | 87.4 | 71.5 | 15.9 |
| 1998 | Denver | 93.5 | 80.5 | 13 |
| 1999 | St Louis | 106.6 | 64.1 | 42.5 |
| 2000 | Baltimore | 72.7 | 62.5 | 10.2 |
| 2001 | New England | 85.3 | 68.6 | 16.7 |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay | 86.3 | 48.4 | 37.9 |
| 2003 | New England | 84.3 | 56.2 | 28.1 |
| 2004 | New England | 92.5 | 75.3 | 17.2 |
| 2005 | Pittsburgh | 91.5 | 74 | 17.5 |
| 2007 | NY Giants | 73 | 83.4 | -10.4 |
| 2008 | Pittsburgh | 81.9 | 63.4 | 18.5 |
| 2009 | New Orleans | 106 | 68.6 | 37.4 |
| 2010 | Green Bay | 98.9 | 67.2 | 31.7 |
| 2011 | NY Giants | 92.9 | 86.1 | 6.8 |
| 2012 | Baltimore | 86.4 | 80.6 | 5.8 |
| 2013 | Seattle | 102.4 | 63.4 | 39 |
| 2014 | New England | 97.51 | 83.96 | 13.55 |
| 2015 | Denver | 101.9 | 87 | 14.9 |
| 2016 | New England | 109.3 | 84.4 | 24.9 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia | 97.58 | 79.48 | 18.1 |
| 2018 | New England | 97.80 | 85.40 | 12.40 |
| 2019 | Kansas City | 104.4 | 83.5 | 20.9 |
Here are this seasons playoff teams and their PR Differentials
| Year | Team | OPR | DPR | PRDiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Kansas City | 107.3 | 89.4 | 17.9 |
| 2020 | Green Bay | 121.5 | 91.1 | 30.4 |
| 2020 | New Orleans | 104.1 | 83.3 | 20.8 |
| 2020 | Buffalo | 107.5 | 86.9 | 20.6 |
| 2020 | Baltimore | 95.7 | 87.2 | 8.5 |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay | 102.8 | 94.3 | 8.5 |
| 2020 | Seattle | 105 | 90.2 | 14.8 |
| 2020 | Pittsburgh | 93.5 | 76.7 | 16.8 |
| 2020 | Tennessee | 105.9 | 97.5 | 8.4 |
| 2020 | Indianapolis | 95.9 | 90.5 | 5.4 |
| 2020 | LA Rams | 88.4 | 80.4 | 8 |
| 2020 | Cleveland | 96.6 | 94.8 | 1.8 |
| 2020 | Chicago | 86.5 | 94.9 | -8.4 |
| 2020 | Washington | 80.1 | 81.4 | -1.3 |
To reinforce the notion that passing and being able to stop the pass are the most important factors in championship success, we will look at a couple more stats. Yards per Pass and Yards Per Rush. Both offensive and defensive and combined.
Super Bowl winners have averaged a rank of 7.58 in Offensive Yards Per Pass and 6.9 in Defensive YPP while averaging 12.34 in Offensive Yards Per Rush and 11.62 in Defensive YPR. In only 12 of the 49 Super Bowl winners, did the winner have a better combined rushing ranking than passing. Of those 12, the 1979 Steelers ranked first in 3 of the 4 categories, with a 2 ranking in DYPP. The 1988 49ers were no worse than 9(OYPP) in any category. In 2015 the Broncos were dominant defensively, ranking 1 in rushing and 2 in passing.
Here are the Super Bowl Winners and their rankings in these stats
| Year | Team | OYPR Rank | OYPP Rank | DYPR Rank | DYPP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | Baltimore | 22 | 5 | 12 | 4 |
| 1971 | Dallas | 7 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 1972 | Miami | 2 | 1 | 12 | 4 |
| 1973 | Miami | 2 | 15 | 7 | 2 |
| 1974 | Pittsburgh | 2 | 22 | 3 | 2 |
| 1975 | Pittsburgh | 2 | 6 | 22 | 2 |
| 1976 | Oakland | 14 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 1977 | Dallas | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| 1978 | Pittsburgh | 21 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 1979 | Pittsburgh | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 1980 | Oakland | 9 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 1981 | San Francisco | 26 | 9 | 21 | 4 |
| 1982 | Washington | 17 | 3 | 13 | 9 |
| 1983 | Los Angeles | 14 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 1984 | San Francisco | 2 | 3 | 21 | 8 |
| 1985 | Chicago | 5 | 6 | 7 | 2 |
| 1986 | NY Giants | 11 | 12 | 11 | 6 |
| 1987 | Washington | 5 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 1988 | San Francisco | 2 | 9 | 5 | 3 |
| 1989 | San Francisco | 11 | 1 | 9 | 3 |
| 1990 | NY Giants | 19 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| 1991 | Washington | 17 | 1 | 15 | 2 |
| 1992 | Dallas | 10 | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| 1993 | Dallas | 3 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| 1994 | San Francisco | 7 | 1 | 16 | 6 |
| 1995 | Dallas | 5 | 3 | 19 | 16 |
| 1996 | Green Bay | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| 1997 | Denver | 2 | 6 | 30 | 4 |
| 1998 | Denver | 2 | 5 | 8 | 11 |
| 1999 | St Louis | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 2000 | Baltimore | 8 | 21 | 1 | 4 |
| 2001 | New England | 24 | 14 | 21 | 17 |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay | 27 | 19 | 4 | 1 |
| 2003 | New England | 30 | 13 | 6 | 1 |
| 2004 | New England | 17 | 9 | 11 | 15 |
| 2005 | Pittsburgh | 12 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 2007 | NY Giants | 4 | 28 | 8 | 19 |
| 2008 | Pittsburgh | 29 | 14 | 1 | 1 |
| 2009 | New Orleans | 6 | 3 | 26 | 15 |
| 2010 | Green Bay | 27 | 3 | 31 | 7 |
| 2011 | NY Giants | 32 | 3 | 23 | 20 |
| 2012 | Baltimore | 12 | 14 | 7 | 17 |
| 2013 | Seattle | 12 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| 2014 | New England | 23 | 19 | 10 | 15 |
| 2015 | Denver | 14 | 22 | 1 | 2 |
| 2016 | New England | 24 | 3 | 10 | 8 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia | 3 | 13 | 7 | 3 |
| 2018 | New England | 17 | 10 | 30 | 5 |
| 2019 | Kansas City | 20 | 5 | 28 | 6 |
Here are this years playoff teams
| Year | Team | YPR Rank | YPP Rank | DYPR Rank | DYPP Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Kansas City | 12 | 5 | 17 | 18 |
| 2020 | Green Bay | 7 | 2 | 21 | 12 |
| 2020 | New Orleans | 10 | 10 | 4 | 6 |
| 2020 | Buffalo | 20 | 7.8 | 26 | 9 |
| 2020 | Baltimore | 1 | 20 | 22 | 4 |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay | 25 | 8 | 1 | 8 |
| 2020 | Seattle | 6 | 15 | 5 | 15 |
| 2020 | Pittsburgh | 32 | 25 | 13 | 3 |
| 2020 | Tennessee | 2 | 7 | 19 | 20 |
| 2020 | Indianapolis | 14 | 9 | 2 | 19 |
| 2020 | LA Rams | 17 | 19 | 3 | 1 |
| 2020 | Cleveland | 5 | 13 | 12 | 16 |
| 2020 | Chicago | 21 | 27 | 9 | 17 |
| 2020 | Washington | 28 | 30 | 11 | 2 |
One last stat to look at is Scoring Margin. Super Bowl winners have averaged a 9.53 scoring margin. No team has ever won with a negative scoring margin. Only six Super Bowl Champions have finished with a scoring margin below 6. Here is the list of past Super Bowl winners.
| Year | Team | Scoring Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1970 | Baltimore | 6.2 |
| 1971 | Dallas | 13.1 |
| 1972 | Miami | 15.3 |
| 1973 | Miami | 13.8 |
| 1974 | Pittsburgh | 8.3 |
| 1975 | Pittsburgh | 15.1 |
| 1976 | Oakland | 8.1 |
| 1977 | Dallas | 9.5 |
| 1978 | Pittsburgh | 10.1 |
| 1979 | Pittsburgh | 9.6 |
| 1980 | Oakland | 3.6 |
| 1981 | San Francisco | 6.7 |
| 1982 | Washington | 6.9 |
| 1983 | Los Angeles | 6.5 |
| 1984 | San Francisco | 15.5 |
| 1985 | Chicago | 16.1 |
| 1986 | NY Giants | 8.4 |
| 1987 | Washington | 5.9 |
| 1988 | San Francisco | 4.7 |
| 1989 | San Francisco | 11.8 |
| 1990 | NY Giants | 7.8 |
| 1991 | Washington | 16.3 |
| 1992 | Dallas | 10.4 |
| 1993 | Dallas | 9.2 |
| 1994 | San Francisco | 13.1 |
| 1995 | Dallas | 9.0 |
| 1996 | Green Bay | 15.4 |
| 1997 | Denver | 11.6 |
| 1998 | Denver | 7.3 |
| 1999 | St Louis | 17.8 |
| 2000 | Baltimore | 10.5 |
| 2001 | New England | 6.2 |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay | 9.4 |
| 2003 | New England | 6.6 |
| 2004 | New England | 11.1 |
| 2005 | Pittsburgh | 8.8 |
| 2007 | NY Giants | 2.1 |
| 2008 | Pittsburgh | 7.8 |
| 2009 | New Orleans | 11.4 |
| 2010 | Green Bay | 9.7 |
| 2011 | NY Giants | 1.9 |
| 2012 | Baltimore | 4.6 |
| 2013 | Seattle | 11.6 |
| 2014 | New England | 9.7 |
| 2015 | Denver | 9.4 |
| 2016 | New England | 11.9 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia | 10.1 |
| 2018 | New England | 6.9 |
| 2019 | Kansas City | 8.9 |
Here are this years playoff teams
| Year | Team | Scoring Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Kansas City | 6.9 |
| 2020 | Green Bay | 8.8 |
| 2020 | New Orleans | 9.1 |
| 2020 | Buffalo | 7.9 |
| 2020 | Baltimore | 10.3 |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay | 8.6 |
| 2020 | Seattle | 5.5 |
| 2020 | Pittsburgh | 6.5 |
| 2020 | Tennessee | 3.2 |
| 2020 | Indianapolis | 5.6 |
| 2020 | LA Rams | 4.8 |
| 2020 | Cleveland | -0.7 |
| 2020 | Chicago | 0.1 |
| 2020 | Washington | 0.4 |
A few of seasons ago, I started taking a look at the average for each of the most important stats and finding the standard deviation from the mean for each team in each stat. I take each team’s Z Score in each stat and add them up.
I like this because it gives a quick look at who the best teams are. This is a crazy season as we have every team scoring below average. No matter who wins we will have one of the weakest Super Bowl Champions ever. That also means we may be primed for a long shot to come in. Here are the Z scores for every Super Bowl winner and this year’s playoff teams.
| Year | Team | Z Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1970 | Baltimore | -6.14 |
| 1971 | Dallas | 5.05 |
| 1972 | Miami | 7.27 |
| 1973 | Miami | 1.89 |
| 1974 | Pittsburgh | -2.83 |
| 1975 | Pittsburgh | 5.45 |
| 1976 | Oakland | -2.67 |
| 1977 | Dallas | 3.10 |
| 1978 | Pittsburgh | 0.72 |
| 1979 | Pittsburgh | 1.30 |
| 1980 | Oakland | -7.64 |
| 1981 | San Francisco | 0.07 |
| 1982 | Washington | -1.46 |
| 1983 | Los Angeles | -4.60 |
| 1984 | San Francisco | 5.18 |
| 1985 | Chicago | 7.58 |
| 1986 | NY Giants | -2.51 |
| 1987 | Washington | -5.92 |
| 1988 | San Francisco | -2.23 |
| 1989 | San Francisco | 5.53 |
| 1990 | NY Giants | 0.57 |
| 1991 | Washington | 8.29 |
| 1992 | Dallas | 1.47 |
| 1993 | Dallas | 0.26 |
| 1994 | San Francisco | 4.64 |
| 1995 | Dallas | -2.06 |
| 1996 | Green Bay | 6.73 |
| 1997 | Denver | 1.37 |
| 1998 | Denver | -1.24 |
| 1999 | St Louis | 6.01 |
| 2000 | Baltimore | -0.44 |
| 2001 | New England | -7.55 |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay | 1.27 |
| 2003 | New England | -1.20 |
| 2004 | New England | -0.55 |
| 2005 | Pittsburgh | -1.10 |
| 2007 | NY Giants | -13.07 |
| 2008 | Pittsburgh | -0.98 |
| 2009 | New Orleans | 1.41 |
| 2010 | Green Bay | 1.38 |
| 2011 | NY Giants | -8.23 |
| 2012 | Baltimore | -8.05 |
| 2013 | Seattle | 5.50 |
| 2014 | New England | -3.33 |
| 2015 | Denver | -3.96 |
| 2016 | New England | 1.45 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia | -0.21 |
| 2018 | New England | -3.45 |
| 2019 | Kansas City | -1.10 |
| Year | Team | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Kansas City | -4.5 |
| 2020 | Green Bay | -2.1 |
| 2020 | New Orleans | -1.7 |
| 2020 | Buffalo | -4.5 |
| 2020 | Baltimore | -4.8 |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay | -3.6 |
| 2020 | Seattle | -8.6 |
| 2020 | Pittsburgh | -5.1 |
| 2020 | Tennessee | -9.3 |
| 2020 | Indianapolis | -6.4 |
| 2020 | LA Rams | -4.4 |
| 2020 | Cleveland | -11.4 |
| 2020 | Chicago | -14.0 |
| 2020 | Washington | -11.0 |
Analysis
Whenever I am betting on a future event with many possibilities, I want to eliminate the teams I do not think to have a chance to win. There are a bunch of terrible teams in this season’s playoffs. Indeed the worst group since 2011 when I first started writing up this analysis.
No team has ever won the Super Bowl with a negative SRS.
That eliminates;
Cleveland
Tennessee
With just 6 teams winning with a scoring margin sub 6 let’s eliminate those teams
Seattle
Tennessee
Indianapolis
LA Rams
Cleveland
Chicago
Washington
We are left with 7 contenders
Here they are in Z Score order
New Orleans
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
Kansas City
Buffalo
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Looking at the numbers these teams are so tight it makes taking Kansas City +200 a really poor choice.
Green Bay +450
It is tough to pass on Green Bay. +450 is a bit expensive considering this tournament looks fairly open. I am going to take a shot with the Packers because of their passing game and their ability on defense to stop the pass. They are the best by far in QB passer rating differential. They have the best combined YPP ranking for offense and defense. They are 1 of 2 teams (Tennessee) to be ranked in the top 10 in YPR and YPP. Rodgers is playing at an extremely high level and he has the best WR in the game right now. Having that first-round bye does not hurt matters.
New Orleans +750
The NFC South played the toughest schedule in football this season. With their share of adversity, the Saints were still able to get the 2 seed in the NFC. I like the balance in this team. They are the only team ranked in the top 10 in YPR and YPP on both sides of the ball. New Orleans has the 2nd best scoring margin in the league. Passer rating differential is a very good 20.8 which is 2nd overall.
Tampa Bay +1000
We will take one more old QB and play the Bucs with Brady. I am not in love with the 8.5 passer rating differential but the 8.6 scoring margin is good for 4th best this year. What moves me to play the Bucs is their combined YPP stats. They are second best in the all-important passing numbers. My biggest concern is Brady has shown to be vulnerable to a great pass rush. They face a team in the first round that can get to the QB. If they can get passed Washington then they should not face anyone nearly as good at putting pressure with just the front 4.
If we take each of these to win 1 unit our total risk is ~.45 units. It is a bit unusual to have all 3 teams in from the NFC. I think the NFC side is where the value is. If KC gets knocked off in the AFC bracket then it will boost the value of our plays. We should be able to get one of these into the Super Bowl. Hopefully as the favorite.
