German Bundesliga Preview 2/28
All times EST
Hi everyone! This article will hopefully help to provide you with an insight into tomorrow’s soccer games. With the help of Statsational’s model, we will analyze where there is value and which spots would be best to avoid. Soccer can be a fickle sport, so I typically stick to smaller (0.25) units. Also, please note that I am not a coach and thus these picks should always be considered unofficial and for fun. Good luck!
As always, if you have questions about a team or matchup, feel free to ask in the free public #soccer channel on the SBA Discord!
7:30am: TSG Hoffenheim @ FC Union Berlin
The early Bundesliga game sees FC Union Berlin (7th) host TSG Hoffenheim (11th) in a battle of teams separated by seven points in the standings. Union Berlin is the better team on paper in this one, yet both teams are only 1-2-2 over their last five league games. These teams last met on November 2nd in a tightly fought game that was scoreless until Hoffenheim got a red card in the 58th minute and was forced to play down a man the rest of the way, resulting in a 3-1 Union Berlin victory. Expect a closer final score in this one.
The game line currently sees Union Berlin as a +140 favorite and Hoffenheim as a +205 underdog. In what should be a close game, I generally like to take the team with better odds. Using the model to help guide my decision, I can see that Hoffenheim is actually showing a positive EV of 6%. Since the model agrees with my preferred strategy, I will definitely be putting 0.25 units on Hoffenheim to win at +205.
9:30am: FC Augsburg @ Mainz
Our second game in Germany is a battle of bottom-feeders, with FC Augsburg (13th) travels to Mainz (17th). These teams have both had disappointing campaigns thus far this year, though they will both look to turn things around and avoid relegation. These teams last met on Halloween in a game that was closely fought most of the way, though Augsburg was able to find two late goals to secure the 3-1 victory. Over the least five Bundesliga games, Augsburg is only 1-3-1, while Mainz has found a bit of a stride recently at 3-1-1.
The line for this one has Mainz as a +110 favorite, while Statsational’s model has a fair line of -109 for them. Augsburg, on the other hand, currently sits at +250 though the fair line should be +364. With such clear value on Mainz, I will back their recent good form and take them to win here at +110 for 0.25 units.
12:00pm: SC Freiburg @ Bayer Leverkusen
Youthful Bayer Leverkusen (5th) hosts SC Freiburg (10th) in our third and final Bundesliga match of the day. Leverkusen has shown flashes of absolute brilliance this season, but their inconsistency prevents them from seriously contending for one of the four Champions League spots awarded to the top German league. Freiburg has fit the billing as a middle-of-the-pack squad thus far. These two teams last met on November 1, with Leverkusen taking a 4-2 victory after a dominant performance. Recently, Leverkusen is only 1-2-2 while Freiburg is 2-2-1 over the last five league games.
Leverkusen is a pretty heavy favorite in this one with a line of -113 compared to Freiburg’s +325. Using the expert model from Statsational, we can see that there is value here on Leverkusen, as the fair line should be -174 with the gap in talent between these two sides. I will go along with the model as well as my gut feeling that tells me Bayer Leverkusen should win this game. 0.25 units at -113 is the bet for me!