Soccer Preview 3/2
All times EST
Hi everyone! This article will hopefully help to provide you with an insight into tomorrow’s soccer games. With the help of Statsational’s model, we will analyze where there is value and which spots would be best to avoid. Soccer can be a fickle sport, so I typically stick to smaller (0.25) units. Also, please note that I am not a coach and thus these picks should always be considered unofficial and for fun. Good luck!
As always, if you have questions about a team or matchup, feel free to ask in the free public #soccer channel on the SBA Discord!
English Premier League
3:00pm: Wolverhampton Wanderers @ Manchester City
Our lone EPL match of the day sees Wolverhampton Wanderers (12th) travel to Manchester City (1st) to test their luck against the league leader’s impressive 20 game win streak. This game is a huge mismatch on paper, with Man City averaging twice as many goals scored and half as many goals allowed as Wolves. Wolverhampton has been in decent form lately, with a 3-0-2 record over the last five league games, but they have a tall order ahead of them if they wish to end Man City’s aforementioned streak.
As expected, Manchester City is the massive favorite in this one with -530 odds. Wolves, meanwhile, check-in at +1700. The streak for Man City has to end at some point, but I find little reason (and little value) to expect it to happen here. The fair line for Wolverhampton should be +3095 according to the model, and Man city should be -508 (not that I would lay that much juice anyway). This is definitely a game to avoid betting on as there is no value to be found here for either side.
Italian Serie A
12:30pm: Torino @ Lazio
Lazio (7th) hosts Torino (17th) in the first of two Italian Serie A matches tomorrow. Lazio comes into this one having gone 3-2 over their last five as they remain in the hunt for Champions League qualification next year. Torino, meanwhile, is looking to avoid relegation and has gone 1-0-4 over the same stretch. In fact, Torino has the most draws in the league with 11, which is almost half of their 23 games. This certainly has the potential to be a close game.
Looking at Statsational’s expert model, we can see that the value in this game lies on the underdog. Torino comes in at +700, which shows a positive 9% EV. However, given their propensity to draw, I am much more interested in taking Torino +1 for +114 odds. This is obviously a much lower payout, but I personally like the security of getting my bet back if Torino loses by one. Given how close they typically play teams, I would be quite surprised to see Lazio win by 2. If you feel more aggressive, you can take Torino on the Asian lines all the way up to +0.25 at +285 odds. I, however, will recommend 0.25 units on Torino +1 at +114 odds.
2:45pm: Spezia @ Juventus
Our second game in Italy tomorrow sees Spezia (14th) travel to Juventus (3rd) in what appears to be quite a mismatch on paper. With the likelihood of winning Serie A slipping away, Juventus will nevertheless look to solidify their place in the Champions League next season, while Spezia would no doubt like to put more distance between themselves and the relegation zone. These two teams last met on November 1 with Juventus dominating 4-1. Over the last five Serie A matches, Juve has gone 3-1-1 while Spezia is 2-2-1.
Juventus is a big favorite in this one, with the line currently at -435, while -406 would be a fair price according to Statsational’s model. Spezia, meanwhile, currently sits at +1150, though the fair line for them should be +1718. With both sides showing a negative EV, I would recommend avoiding betting on this one altogether.