English Premier League Preview 4/10
All times EST
Hi everyone! This article will hopefully help to provide you with an insight into tomorrow’s soccer games. With the help of Statsational’s model, we will analyze where there is value and which spots would be best to avoid. Soccer can be a fickle sport, so I typically stick to smaller (0.25-0.5) units. Also, please note that I am not a coach and thus these picks should always be considered unofficial and for fun. Good luck!
As always, if you have questions about any team or matchup, feel free to ask in the free public #soccer channel on the SBA Discord!
7:30am: Leeds United @ Manchester City
The first game in England tomorrow sees 1st-place Manchester City hosting 11th-place Leeds United in what looks to be a huge mismatch on paper. Man City has been the cream of the crop this year, not only in the EPL but in all of soccer. They have only lost once in 24 games, while Leeds United is a mediocre 2-2-1 over their last five. Despite Manchester City’s dominance this season, the last match between these two ended in a 1-1 draw, though it was all the way back on October 3rd. In that game, Leeds stayed with Man City every step of the way and truly earned the 1-1 draw.
As you might expect, Manchester City is the heavy favorite here, with odds at -345 compared to +850 for Leeds United. The expert model from Statsational doesn’t show value on either side, however, with fair lines at -291 for Man City and +955 for Leeds. I don’t see Man City having any problems winning this game, but the price on them is way too steep. With a negative EV of 14%, there is simply no value in betting on them. Leeds also shows a negative value, so even if you liked them for the upset, this isn’t the right spot to attack. I would recommend avoiding this one from a betting standpoint.
10:00am: Aston Villa @ Liverpool
Our second match in the EPL has Aston Villa (9th) travel to Liverpool (7th) in a battle of two teams hoping to have better seasons. After winning the league in dominating fashion last year, Liverpool is in real danger of missing not only the Champions League, but also the Europa League next season. They have looked slightly better of late, going 3-2 in their last five, but they have their work cut out for them if they want to move back into the top five. Aston Villa, on the other hand, started the season strong but has struggled since. They are only 1-2-2 over the last five and are firmly stuck in the middle of the Premier League table. These teams last met on January 8th in the FA Cup, and Liverpool dominated that game with a 4-1 victory.
Aston Villa is a +525 underdog in this game, while Liverpool finds themselves as a -200 favorite. The fair lines for this game, according to the model, should be -263 for Liverpool and +944 for Aston Villa. While there is value on Liverpool according to the model, -200 is a big price to pay for such an inconsistent team. Personally, the odds are just a little too long for my liking. Pair that with Liverpool’s questionable record against low-level teams, and this seems to me like another great spot to avoid. I do think Liverpool wins, and the model agrees, so if you really want to bet it I would definitely go with Liverpool. I’ll be avoiding it, however.
12:30pm: Chelsea @ Crystal Palace
In the final Premier League matchup tomorrow, Chelsea (5th) takes on host Crystal Palace (13th). Chelsea has been in great form since the hiring of Thomas Tuchel, with their only loss in over two months coming last week after an early red card saw them play down a man for over an hour against West Brom. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the EPL this season, with a 1-1-3 record over their last five. The last time these teams met on October 3rd, Chelsea cruised to a 4-0 victory.
We have another apparent mismatch here, as Chelsea is a -190 favorite while Crystal Palace comes in at +600. Statsational’s model sees value on Chelsea here, who should be at -232 while Crystal Palace should have a fair line of +888. This is normally a lot more juice than I am willing to pay in soccer. However, Chelsea has looked nigh unstoppable aside from the red card game last weekend. Crystal Palace has failed to muster much of an attack here, and I don’t envision Chelsea having any problems putting them away. I will be betting on Chelsea at -190 to win 0.25 units.