It’s been a really messed up 2020 and we all welcome back some north American professional sports. The next 3 months will be insane. I cant wait!!!
The model is final unless for some big news tomorrow. At first i told myself i wasn’t going to wager on a MLB games until I can figure out how the coaches will manage their pitchers, bullpens and how often lineups change. Teams will be playing 60 in 66 days and the Blue Jays still dont have a place to play.
I am not betting the NYY/WSH however the model is showing a little EV on WSH at +108. The model is also expecting 0.8 more runs then what Vegas is projecting. I personally like the under in this game but I hate to go against the model. I also liked the F5 under of 3.5 but ill pass on both. I believe both pitchers will have big games and scoring will be low. Rendon will be very missed by the Nats, zimmerman is out and we have to keep an eye on Robles. Many will be attracted to pick the Yankees at the current price however sharps took a strong position on them when the line came out (-115) so if anyone thinks that there is still value behind them think again. Rain is in the schedule tomorrow. Keep an eye on the weather.
SF is so low priced on FD that they are absolutely worth a shot in DFS. LAD will be uber chalk, especially on DK.I included Pence in my projection but he’s questionable. I doubt Longoria will play… this will be a very weak line up vs a Kershaw that looked pretty on Friday. The model supports the over and projecting 0.62 over the Vegas number. If Kershaw pitches close to 100 pitches it will be a long night for the Giants. On the other hand i have no idea what to expect from Cueto. He didn’t play much in 2019 and he will be facing the best offense in MLB in which he gave up 3 HRs last time he pitched vs the Dodgers (in 2 innings). I really dont expect any offense for SF (but get exposure on them in large GPPs on FD due the Kershaw’s uber ownership and cheap price) and ill back Kershaw with his 2.15 ERA, 2.02 BA vs OPP at home and LAD mega offense.
LAD C KERSHAW -L -1.5 (-139) to risk 0.50 unit
Match Start : 2020-07-23 22:08:00