The Super Bowl for a professional bettor is like St. Patrick’s day for an alcoholic. It’s just another day. What I mean by that is, a bet is a bet. A professional is going to be looking for the best bets he or she can make on a daily basis. The fact that it is the biggest game of the year is inconsequential. To the average fan, this is the one sporting event of the year they may bet on. I hate to be the party pooper, though, so I like to put in some small prop bets for the big game.
Prop bets take a lot of work to analyze correctly. Even though I play these for much smaller unit sizes, I still like to do my homework.
A lot of you in the Sports Bet Army are using My Bookie. If you do not already have an account at MB, you can use this link to join. Be sure to contact @Anthony P-TTM-Staff when you do. You can find him in our Discord chat. You will be given two free months of SBA. There is also a free to enter “Predict the Score” contest where somebody will take home $250. You will also be eligible to enter our prop contest, where we are giving away $500 in prizes.
For those of you new to my content, and even some of you who are more familiar, refer to my video on bankroll management.
Ok, enough business. Let’s get to some picks.
I would not be risking full units on these plays. .25 to .30 units (to win) is more than enough to have some interest. The spreads (juice taken by the house) are so wide on many props that it makes it difficult to find good ones. But that is why you are here. I will hunt down the props with the least edge to the house and maybe some in our favor.
Tampa Bay Total Rushing Yards
My model gives this range a 13% chance of happening. That is not great value, but compared to all of the other bets of this type, that range is the closest we come to the true odds. I do not think either team will have a lot of success in the run game.
Total TDS By Both Teams
Both teams average 3.6 TDS per game. Both defenses are in my top 10, so that will lower my projections a bit. I have the probability this bet wins at 40%, which is +150. No value here, but it is close enough for a fun prop.
Total TDS scored (3 way. Pushes lose)
This is correlated with the previous bet of o7.5, so keep that in mind when wagering. You do not want too much risk on a correlated bet. If you want to play one or the other, that is fine as well.
Total Field Goals Both Teams
The two teams have combined for 3.5 FGs per game on the season. Both teams are in the top 10 in 4th down conversions. Brady has been a master in his career at the hurry-up QB sneak in those situations, and we know Andy Reid is not afraid to let Mahomes create something on 4th and short. With both teams thinking they need TDs to win, I like this under.
Tampa Bay Total TDS
I like Tampa Bay in the game, so I will take the +145 here and look for Brady and company to put 4 or more on the board. I give the chances of that happening right around 41%, which makes this line close to where I would have it.
Tampa Bay First TD Scorer
Mike Evans +400
Chris Godwin +600
My thoughts on this game are that Tampa will get the ball deep for big plays. If that is the case, I want to look at the most likely players to score outside of the red zone.
Team To Score First
Tampa Bay -115
Most teams defer when they win the coin toss in the modern NFL. The last two times Tampa won the coin toss they elected to take the ball. They scored on both occasions. There is a chance they want to get off to the fast start and take the ball and try and score first. Kansas City has yet to defer this season. The Chiefs have also been prone to starting games slowly.
Longest TD in the Game
o45.5 yards -115
As I stated, I expect the Bucs to get at least one long TD on KC. The Chiefs were 23rd in the league on explosive plays for over 20 yards. The Bucs and Chiefs are near the top in big plays over 25 yards.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
There is good value on all of these, particularly the shorter ones. These are all longshots and need to be played as such. Refer back to my video on bankroll management to play these correctly.
Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards
Hill averages 91.6 yards per game receiving. That does include a massive game against these same Bucs when he caught 15 for 269. I look for the Bucs to focus their attention on Hill, and they will try and let others beat them. Easier said than done.
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
This looks like a high number, and it is. Kelce is averaging close to 97 yards per game. I expect him to be the main focus of the KC offense this week. The last time they played, he saw 8 targets and caught them all for 82 yards. Look for him to take some of the Hill yards.
These are the props I will have some fun with this Super Bowl Sunday. If we are going to have some fun why not take a few longshots that give us decent value. That is what I have tried to do on these.
There are so many props to choose from. I look forward to hearing which ones you like in the discord chat.
Best Of Luck