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Prop betting on the Super Bowl has become one of the more popular ways to bet the game in recent years. Like most bets, the average person tries to guess which side they like based on a gut feeling. As BTB subscribers know, the coaches there do not follow that kind of betting style. The bets we make always have a reason and are backed up with some math.

If you are a DFS player, you are familiar with weekly player projections. You may calculate your own projections, like I do, or use the projections from a 3rd party. Either way, you can use those projections to figure out the value of each prop bet you may see posted by various sportsbooks. One thing with prop bets is you will have a variety of different bets depending on the book as well as a range of prices. The game line will not vary nearly as much as some of the props will, from book to book. Part of your job is to shop around for the line you like the best.

Here is a video to help you figure out what the prices should be based on your projection for a specific stat. I also go over some of the plays I like for the game. Many of these plays are highly correlated. That means if two bets are highly correlated, they will likely win together or lose together. This is why you may not be able to parlay things like the over on completions for a QB and the over on attempts. There is a high correlation between both of those. For that same reason, we do not want to put too much risk on these bets. If you do not want to figure out exactly all of your correlations, play it safe, and reduce your prop bets down to .1 – .2 units per play. Also, remember to play these for a to win amount, not a risk amount. If we are using $100 as a unit size, then a -200 bet would mean we are risking $200 to win 100, not $100 to win $50. Similarly, if we take a +200 we will want to risk $50 to win $100. I have written extensively about this in the past.

Here are the player props I will be taking
NFL Player Props
Jimmy G o237.5 yards -125
Jimmy G o18.5 completions -155
Jimmy G o29.5 attempts -110
Jimmy G u2 TDs -195
Patrick Mahomes u299.5 yards +105
Patrick Mahomes u2 TDs +140
Patrick Mahomes u2.5 TDs -120
Jimmy G o3.5 Rush Yards -120
Coleman u6.5 Rush Attempts -140
Thompson o1.5 Rush Attempts +110
Thompson o4.5 Rush Yards -115
Samuel u17.5 Rush Yards -120
Mahomes u28.5 Rush Yards +170
Kittle u6 Receptions -110
Sanders o41.5 Rec Yards -140
Sanders o3.5 Receptions -105
Samuel o4.5 Receptions +105
Mostert o10.5 Rec Yards -125
Robinson u1.5 Reception +115
Hardman o20.5 Rec Yards -140
Williams u3.5 Receptions +125

Best of Luck!
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